Political analysts in the Kigezi sub-region have warned that the continued detention of Col Dr Kizza Besigye could significantly affect President Museveni’s campaigns, predicting heightened voter apathy and a possible dip in turnout across the region.
The President is expected in Kisoro and Rubanda on November 24, before heading to Rukiga and Kabale the following day.
On October 16, 2025, Besigye and his aide, Hajj Obeid Lutale, marked one year in detention. The pair were abducted in Nairobi on November 16, 2024, before being transferred to Kampala, where they were arraigned before the General Court.
Their prolonged incarceration comes amid stalled investigations, contested bail applications, and renewed scrutiny of Uganda’s political freedoms and the state’s handling of opposition figures.
Robert Kakuru, a political analyst in Kabale, said the ongoing detention without trial would not only undermine Museveni’s campaigns in Kigezi but could also shape the broader national mood in the lead-up to the 2026 general elections.
“Government has to start thinking of charging Besigye or release him,” Kakuru said, arguing that unresolved legal questions were already feeding resentment and disillusionment among voters.
Dr John Paul Kasujja, another political analyst, said Uganda’s political landscape would be markedly different if Besigye were not in detention, noting that President Museveni would face increased pressure from both National Unity Platform presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi and Besigye.
“Although the continuous detention of Dr. Besigye will affect President Museveni’s campaigns in the western region, he can still contain the situation, which would be different if Dr. Besigye were out,” Dr. Kasujja said.
